Analysis of PVC futures: On November 22, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5315, the highest price: 5330, the lowest price: 5225, the position: 974251, the settlement price: 5271, yesterday's settlement: 5290, down 19, the daily trading volume: 952697 lots, the deposited capital: 3.571 billion, and the capital inflow: 62.44 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market fell slightly, and spot prices were performing poorly on the market. Comparison of valuation: Among them, the high-end of North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, the high-end of East China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, the high-end of South China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, the Northeast region dropped by 20 yuan/ton, the Central China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the Southwest region fell by 30 yuan/ton. There was no obvious price adjustment in the quotations of upstream PVC production companies, and most of them were stable, but not many contracts were signed on Friday. Futures fluctuated lower, and the spot market quotes were somewhat divided. They could still be maintained in the morning session, but the one-shot price fell in the afternoon. After the futures price fell, the price advantage was relatively obvious. Among them, the basis offer in East China 01 contract-(70-130-180), contract 01 for South China-(0-80), contract 01 for northern China-(380-410), contract 01 for parts of the supply of goods in Southwest China-(610), and contract 01 for parts of goods-(200). Overall, after PVC futures fluctuated downward, traders 'offers were lowered compared with yesterday. There was room for negotiation on actual orders. Downstream purchases were low-priced pending orders, and the overall transaction was acceptable.
From a futures perspective: The night trading price of the PVC2501 contract opened high and went low, and the overall night trading showed a downward trend. Prices began to be slightly consolidated in early trading, continued to decline in late morning, and operated at low levels in the afternoon, and the low levels were refreshed again. The 2501 contract fluctuates from 5,225 to 5,330 throughout the day, with a spread of 105. The 01 contract has increased its position by 30019 lots. As of now, 974251 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5554, with 189955 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: On Friday, the PVC2501 contract futures market once again showed a downward trend of increased positions and relatively obvious open positions. In terms of transactions, the open positions were 25.6% and 23.3% more. The technical level showed that the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) The three-track opening turned downward, and the MACD line at the daily level showed a dead fork trend, and the KD line crossed. At the close of noon, China's main futures contracts fell more and more. Lithium carbonate fell more than 4%, BR rubber fell nearly 4%, rapeseed meal fell more than 3%, rapeseed oil fell nearly 3%, and No. 20 rubber, glass and rubber fell more than 2%. The overall commodity sentiment has weakened at a low level, and there is also some pressure on the operation of the main PVC contract. In the short term, observe fluctuations in the low range of 5180-5300 and be vigilant against the previous low of 5159.
In terms of spot: The two markets are now weakening during the Friday session. Although the spot market can still be maintained in the morning session, prices will go down in the afternoon, and the atmosphere inside the market will weaken. However, after the futures price went down, downstream low pending orders increased, and price transactions on Friday were OK. Judging from the weakening of most commodities at the close of the afternoon, first of all, the overall commodity atmosphere has returned to a depressed atmosphere. As of now, as far as PVC single products are concerned, the gains boosted by policies in the previous period have been basically given up, and spot prices have also returned to the low range. On the external market, oil prices rose nearly 2%, due to the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine. The two countries fired missiles at each other, and markets were worried that crude oil supplies could be affected if the conflict expanded. At the current supply and demand level, strong supply, weak demand, and high inventories are the consensus. The fundamentals of supply and demand contradictions are difficult to provide better support. In addition, there is no clear guidance at the overall policy and news levels. Overall, in the short term, the PVC spot market is mainly operating at a low level.
