Analysis of soda ash market
Today, soda ash market prices in China are adjusted within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,350 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton. Some soda plant units have been operating at a negative level, and the supply side has fluctuated within a narrow range, but the supply of goods is stable; today's market transactions are relatively stable, downstream procurement of light soda is smooth, and demand for heavy soda is relatively stable; some soda ash production companies have surged and explored the market, with prices raised by 20-50 yuan/ton, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 19, was 1481 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% within the day. The intraday high was 1486 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1446 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1149193 lots, a month-on-month +11539 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices generally rebounded mainly with the market environment bottoming out. At present, the fundamentals of soda ash itself are still weak, disturbances on the supply side are gradually recovering, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand has strongly suppressed prices. However, given that the current pricing is near the cost line of ammonia and soda companies, the problem of high-cost companies reducing production and increasing prices still cannot be falsified, and the risk of downward pressure is gradually increasing. In addition, although there has been a policy vacuum in the near future, macro support has not completely subsided. Before subsequent stories that can be told are falsified, the repeated macro emotions caused by news disturbances are still unavoidable. In the short term, soda ash itself has no new drivers, or it will maintain a weak trend mainly due to fluctuations in the overall market environment.
market outlook
Enterprises that reduced their production in the early stage will gradually resume operations, and the market supply will consolidate at a high level; the current soda ash price is low, and the downstream may have certain intentions to stock up, but the actual procurement intensity remains to be seen; it is expected that the soda ash market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, with limited price fluctuations.
