Analysis of PVC futures: On November 6, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5449, the highest price: 5468, the lowest price: 5372, the position: 901359, the settlement price: 5424, yesterday's settlement: 5443, down 19, the daily trading volume: 1161999 lots, the deposited capital: 3.401 billion, and the capital inflow: 125 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market fell slightly, basically giving up yesterday's gains. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 40 yuan/ton, East China fell by 50 yuan/ton, South China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 30 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 20-60 yuan/ton. The quotations of upstream PVC production companies were partially stable, and some made up for a slight decrease of 30 yuan/ton. Most contracts signed on Wednesday were based on basic quantities. Futures weakened slightly, and one-stop offers in the spot market fell slightly. As futures prices fell, the basis advantage in the spot market was obvious. Among them, the basis offer in East China was 01 contract-(150-200), and the 01 contract-(50-100), the 01 contract-(400-450) in the northern region, and the 01 contract-(630) in some sources of goods in the southwest region. Although the basis exists relatively sometimes, transactions are still dominated in the early stage. The high prices in the spot market have little support for transactions. Most real order negotiations are dominated. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and overall inquiry enthusiasm is poor and transactions are weak.
From a futures perspective: The night futures price of the PVC2501 contract was mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuations in the futures price showed no obvious direction. The same was true for the fluctuations in prices in the early morning and later periods, but prices in the late morning began to fall slightly, and prices in the afternoon weakened further slightly. The 2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 5,372 to 5,468, with a spread of 96. The 01 contract increased its position by 41294 lots. As of now, 901359 lots have been held. The 2505 contract closed at 5716, with 140103 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures market significantly increased its positions by more than 41294 lots. In terms of transactions, it was 25.2% more and 25.5% less than 25.5%. With so many increased positions, both medium and short positions entered the market, and the futures price showed a negative column throughout the day. The low point crossed the mid-track and went down deeply. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) is open. Due to the decline in today's futures price, the daily-level DK line and MACD line have begun to show a dead fork trend, and the technical closing line is slightly short. However, after the futures price reaches a low level, there is a certain amount of over-entry in the market. Judging from the current trend, it tends to consider speculative over-orders. Overall, in the short term, the futures price will operate or enter the middle and lower tracks. Observe the performance of the low range 5350-5460.
In terms of spot: First of all, judging from the overall trend of commodities, at the close of noon, most of the main futures contracts in China fell. Coke and coking coal fell nearly 4%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lithium carbonate, PTA, Shanghai silver, para-xylene (PX), and industrial silicon fell more than 2%. In terms of increase, alumina rose more than 3%, No. 20 rubber, rubber rose more than 2%, and glass and butadiene rubber rose more than 1%. On the external side, the results of the U.S. presidential election have gradually become clear, and some commodities have feedback on this in the afternoon. There have been no obvious stimulating factors in terms of PVC fundamentals in the near future. The starting load of PVC units has remained high. However, in terms of demand, there are certain expectations of weakening. Recently, commodities have been constantly trending sideways, and there are also some expectations for meeting policies. However, most commodities have weakened today and the feedback is poor. In the short term, PVC spot market prices may enter a narrow range.
