Analysis of PVC futures: On November 5, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5464, the highest price: 5479, the lowest price: 5414, the position: 860065, the settlement price: 5443, yesterday's settlement: 5446, down 3, the daily trading volume: 1075301 lots, the deposited funds: 3.276 billion, and the capital inflow: 271.2 billion.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in the PVC market in China rose slightly, with frequent adjustments in ups and downs. Comparison of valuation: North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, East China increased by 30 yuan/ton, South China increased by 20 yuan/ton, Northeast China increased by 20 yuan/ton, Central China increased by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China increased by 20 yuan/ton. Some upstream PVC production companies remained stable, and some slightly lowered their ex-factory prices by 30-50 yuan/ton. Futures continued to be organized in a narrow range, and spot market prices increased slightly compared with yesterday, especially some low-end prices. Spot price and buy price coexist, but both offer methods reported that the transaction was poor, and the basis difference was not adjusted. Among them, the basis difference was 01 contract-(150-200) for East China, 01 contract-(0-90) for South China, 01 contract-(400-450) for Northern China, and 01 contract-(630) for some goods shipped in Southwest China. Overall, it is difficult to complete transactions at high prices in the spot market today. There is a certain room for negotiation on real transactions. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and overall transactions are weak.
From a futures perspective: The night futures price of the PVC2501 contract opened high and went low, and the futures price dropped relatively significantly, and then it was sorted out low. Starting from early trading, prices reversed and rose in a V-shaped manner in the late period, and consolidated sideways in a small range in the afternoon until the end. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5414 to 54879, with a spread of 65. The 01 contract has increased its position by 12725 lots. As of now, 860065 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5770, with 137016 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract continued to be consolidated horizontally in a narrow range. Compared with yesterday's fluctuation range, there was no major change, maintaining a small range of fluctuations. However, the intraday trends were quite different, showing a large V-shaped trend, with a slight increase in positions on the market. In terms of transactions, 25.9% of the market opened more than 22.8% of the market opened less than 22.8%, and there was a certain number of small and over-opening entries. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) is flat, the futures price continues to spread around the middle track up and down, and the daily-level DK line and MACD line continue to cross. The state of sideways trading or consideration continues. At present, there are insufficient stimulating factors at the policy level, news level and PVC fundamentals. Overall, in the short term, futures prices are mainly centered around mid-track sideways trading, and fluctuations in the range of 5380-5550 will continue to be observed.
In terms of spot: First of all, the futures market has been trading sideways around the mid-track recently. Although the single-day market seems to be ups and downs, the actual fluctuation range has not changed significantly. Currently, the factors in the two markets are not enough to stimulate them. External market: International oil prices rose nearly 3%, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to postpone plans to increase production by one month, while the market was also concerned about tensions in the Middle East and discussions on the U.S. presidential election. Investors 'focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve and China, with economists predicting a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday. For the current meeting of the Standing Committee of the People's Congress of China, there are still expectations of additional stimulus measures to boost the slowing economy, which is also the reason why the recent trend of commodities has been entangled at this time point. Overall, the PVC spot market will continue to be organized in a narrow range in the short term, focusing on policy and external aspects.
