Analysis of PVC futures: On October 30, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5473, the highest price: 5517, the lowest price: 5425, the position: 829107, the settlement price: 5473, yesterday's settlement: 5500, down 27, the daily trading volume: 1109904 lots, the deposited funds: 317.5 billion, and the outflow of funds: 132 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market fell slightly, and spot prices were performing poorly on the market. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China fell by 50 yuan/ton, South China fell by 60-80 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Southwest China fell by 50 yuan/ton. Upstream PVC production companies generally lowered ex-factory prices by 20-30-50 yuan/ton, including the simultaneous decline in prices for off-site warehouses. Futures traded in a narrow range, but spot market merchants 'one-stop offers weakened further compared with yesterday, and both one-stop prices and point-to-point transactions performed poorly, and the basis adjustment was not large. Among them, the basis offer in East China 01 contract-(80-150-200), contract 01 in South China-(0-70), contract 01 in northern China-(400-420), contract 01 for some sources of goods in Southwest China-(520), and contract 01 for some high-end delivery-(200). Recent price changes have not caused certain fluctuations in transactions. The downstream market remains mainly low pending orders, and the overall operation in the spot market is relatively light.
From a futures perspective: The opening price of the PVC2501 contract rose slightly in the night session and then fell back. Then it was sorted out in a narrow range. The price in the early session continued to be sorted out on the basis of the night session. It went down in the late morning and rose slightly in the afternoon. The 2501 contract fluctuates from 5425 to 5517 throughout the day. The spread is 92. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 37777 lots. As of now, 829107 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5780 lots, with 129253 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract moves sideways in a narrow range around the upper and lower middle rail, showing a cross star and a negative column throughout the day. In addition, there was a certain performance of reducing positions on the market. In terms of transactions, both long and short parties opened positions at 21.8%, but in terms of closing positions, the 26.6% was higher than the 25.3% short position. The basic coefficient of Monday's increase in futures prices was retracted. The technical level shows that the three tracks of Bollinger Bands (13, 13, and 2) are intended to be narrowed. However, the technical closing line in the sideways position is of little reference significance. The current trend of the cultural commodity index is also relatively anxious, with most of the mid-track and sideways trading, with commodities closing mixed in the afternoon. Overall, the operation of the main PVC contract in the short term may continue to revolve around the 5400-5550 positions near the middle rail.
In terms of spot: Judging from the current time point, the winter market will soon enter November. From the perspective of supply and demand of PVC, the starting load of PVC units is stable during this period, but there is a certain weakening expectation for the lack of demand. Especially in the medium and long term, excluding the part that is just needed, high inventory will still become an obvious constraint during this period. Therefore, the supply and demand level cannot support a large reversal in prices in the two cities. Secondly, price fluctuations rely on the guidance of policy ports. On the external side, international oil prices fell slightly as the market focus returned to the prospect of a possible oversupply in 2025. Some research institutions said in a report that by closely monitoring the balance of global and U.S. oil supply and demand, a negative trend will still be found, and this trend may become more obvious as the fourth quarter progresses. In addition, investors are concerned about China's release of new economic outlook to consider the impact on the market. Overall, PVC spot factors are insufficient in the short term, and prices continue to maintain a consolidated state.
