Daily Report: Natural Rubber Oscillating in a "Squeeze", Difficult to Rise or Fall

Index

On September 4, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market was 2,360 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market

Spot Market

Supply

Overseas: Weather conditions in Thai production areas have improved, with some second-tier dealers increasing their shipments. Factory rubber collection volumes have risen, and raw material purchase prices have stabilized after the earlier increase.

Vietnam production areas remain in the rainy season, with scattered rainfall as the main pattern. No large-scale continuous heavy rainfall has occurred, and daytime tapping operations can be maintained. However, repeated rainfall disruptions have slowed the release rhythm of new rubber below seasonal expectations.

Domestic: Rainfall in production areas decreased during the week, and rising finished product prices have kept purchase prices relatively high.

Hainan production areas have seen favorable weather, with tapping operations proceeding in an orderly manner. The peak production trend of new rubber is gradually emerging. However, boosted by factors such as improved orders, local processing plants continue to compete aggressively for raw materials with premium prices, keeping latex purchase prices at high levels.

Demand

According to reports, most tire manufacturers are running their equipment stably, with some showing variations. Individual plants under maintenance are resuming production as scheduled, while others have maintenance plans in the near future. Manufacturers continue to flexibly adjust production schedules based on their own circumstances. Overall, tire manufacturers continue to exercise production control. Additionally, shipments at the beginning of the month were average, with some still primarily fulfilling carryover orders from the end of the previous month.

Futures and Spot Price List

Market Outlook

The natural rubber market is currently in a phase of long-short tug-of-war. On the supply side, although production areas both domestically and internationally have entered the seasonal supply release phase, rainfall disruptions still carry uncertainty, constraining the pace of raw material release. Coupled with the support of rigid restocking by processing plants, raw material prices are prone to remaining high, providing strong cost-side support for rubber prices. However, demand-side performance remains relatively weak, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing on a rigid-need basis. Under high raw material prices, the willingness for large-scale active restocking is limited, and spot inventory destocking is not smooth, suppressing the upside space for rubber prices. Overall, the tug-of-war between cost support and demand suppression continues, and the natural rubber market is likely to maintain range-bound oscillation in the short term.

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