Natural Rubber Report (May 13)
Natural Rubber Daily Report: A Precarious Stand
I. Index
On May 12th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2280/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.
II. Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Recent rainfall in parts of Thailand has not effectively alleviated the drought, and tapping in the northeast may be delayed.
Vietnam's producing areas have not yet seen full-scale tapping, with only a very small number of rubber plantations in the south starting trial tapping.
Domestic: Increased rainfall in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, has alleviated the previous drought. Stimulated by prices, expectations for increased tapping volume in the producing areas are strengthening.
Weather conditions in Hainan are relatively favorable, and tapping operations are proceeding normally, with raw material production showing seasonal output.
On the demand side:
It is understood that the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers has mostly remained stable, with concentrated production for export and some companies having low domestic sales output. Overall, shortages persist. Some companies raised product prices this month, and others implemented flexible sales policies, but these had limited impact on domestic shipments.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
III. Market Forecast
Today, futures prices fluctuated within a range, while spot offers remained largely unchanged. Market inquiries were subdued. Increased rainfall in production areas has alleviated the previous drought to some extent, but factories currently have relatively strong restocking demand. With raw material supplies not yet fully replenished, raw material prices remain relatively high. However, downstream factories still resist high-priced supplies, resulting in lower-than-expected transactions, which has also suppressed the upward trend of rubber prices. In the short term, natural rubber is expected to face downward pressure.
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