Natural Rubber Daily: Rally Tiring, Taking a Breather

Index

On August 25, the STR20 price index for natural rubber in the Qingdao market was USD 2,340/ton, down USD 10/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market

Spot Market

Supply

Overseas:

Thailand: Both southern and northeastern regions experienced varying degrees of rainfall disrupting tapping operations. Raw material supply growth remains slow. Dry rubber factories and secondary dealers are actively restocking, and raw material prices are showing an upward trend.

Vietnam: The production region is in its rainy season with frequent nighttime showers, disrupting daytime tapping operations. Raw material costs have been driven higher as a result.

Domestic:

Yunnan: Weather conditions are favorable. New rubber output is gradually increasing, and processing plants are maintaining high-price procurement of raw materials.

Hainan: Rainy weather has increased, limiting tapping operations. New rubber supply has decreased month-over-month. Local processing plants, to ensure order fulfillment and production needs, are aggressively bidding up raw material prices.

Demand

According to reports, all-steel tire producers currently undergoing maintenance are in the production recovery phase, which will provide some support for a recovery in overall supply. However, overall shipment performance falls short of expectations, with slow destocking of finished products and some enterprises still showing growing inventory levels. Under production and sales pressure, some companies may still face expectations of production cuts or maintenance by month-end.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Outlook

Today the futures market traded in a range-bound pattern, and the center of spot price quotations showed little change. On the supply side, persistent rainfall in Southeast Asia and domestic production regions continues to disrupt tapping operations. Upstream processing plants are actively restocking, and raw material procurement prices continue to rise. In the short term, natural rubber cost support remains relatively strong. On the demand side, wait-and-see sentiment is prevalent, with downstream buyers procuring only modest amounts to meet essential needs. Trading activity in the market remains cautious. Expectations for the natural rubber market to continue rallying have eased in the near term.