Natural Rubber Daily: This Wave Cools Down a Bit Fast

Index

On September 15, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $2,380/ton, down $40/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market

Supply Side:

Overseas: Rainfall has increased in Thai production areas, especially in the northeastern region where rainfall is above normal. Raw material release is slow, and factories are purchasing at premiums, continuously bidding up raw material prices.

In Vietnam's southern production areas, rainfall has been heavy, and precipitation disruptions have provided support for raw material prices. Affected by high raw material prices, processing plant profits continue to be under pressure.

Domestic: Weather in Yunnan production areas is normal, tapping operations are proceeding normally, and raw material supply is gradually increasing, with some low prices still existing.

Hainan production areas have experienced heavy rain, forcing tapping operations to be suspended. Short-term raw material supply has experienced a phased interruption. Meanwhile, affected by futures and spot markets, local processing plants' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials has declined, and the center of latex purchase prices has dropped from high levels.

Demand Side:

According to reports, some all-steel tire enterprises have recently conducted scheduled maintenance, mainly due to high raw material prices, difficulty in raising finished tire prices, and shipment performance below expectations. Some enterprises have moderately reduced production to alleviate pressure. Some all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises still have maintenance plans, and overall tire industry operating rates are expected to decline.

Futures and Spot Price List

Market Outlook

The earlier bullish factors in the natural rubber market are gradually fading, and the market driver has shifted from long to short.

Cost-side support has noticeably weakened. Upstream processing plants' willingness to purchase at premiums has cooled, and raw material procurement has become cautious. Domestic and overseas raw material prices have stopped rising and fallen back. The cost side's supporting role for rubber prices has diminished, and bullish market sentiment has been suppressed accordingly.

The spot market is also under pressure. Arbitrage positions are actively closing and selling, circulating supply has become more abundant, and actual transaction prices have weakened. The demand side lacks highlights, with downstream only purchasing on a need basis at low prices. Support is limited, market wait-and-see sentiment persists, and willingness to proactively build inventory is insufficient.

In summary, the earlier bullish factors supporting rubber prices have been gradually digested. In the short term, the natural rubber market overall presents a weak operating pattern. If there are no new bullish stimuli from the cost and demand sides, rubber prices may still face further downside potential.

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