Caustic soda: The liquid caustic soda market declined partially, the flake caustic soda market rose steadily, and the market increased positions and fluctuated upward(December 30, 2024)

Analysis of caustic soda futures: Opening price of SH2505 contract on December 30: 2760, highest price: 2812, lowest price: 2742, position: 108836, settlement price: 2778, yesterday's settlement price was 2771, increase: 7, closing price: 2796, daily trading volume: 183819 lots, deposited funds: 1.461 billion, capital inflow: 134 million.

Caustic soda market price:

Caustic soda spot analysis: Today's caustic soda market showed a differentiated trend, among which the liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda markets had different trends, the liquid caustic soda market price declined partially, and the flake caustic soda market rose steadily. From the perspective of regional market price adjustments, the price of 32% ion membrane alkali fell by 30 yuan/ton in some areas, 50% ion membrane alkali fell by 20-40 yuan/ton in some areas, and the market price of 99% flake alkali rose by 50-100 yuan/ton in some areas. There was no significant change in the price range of other concentrations of alkali. Specifically, the liquid alkali market in Shandong Province today declined slightly, and the main alumina factories in the region lowered the price of liquid alkali again, which had a certain negative impact on the local market price. In addition, the downstream market operation enthusiasm was not high, and some chlor-alkali enterprises had obvious inventory pressure, and the market price was slightly lowered. Other chlor-alkali enterprises were still enthusiastic about buying at low prices, and the inventory pressure was alleviated, and the market price remained stable. Today, the flake alkali market was stable with a slight increase. The pre-sale situation in some areas such as Xinjiang was still good, and some factories were tight on picking up goods, so the price rose slightly; the ex-factory prices of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong Province remained stable, and the manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet released new prices. The overall cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market has not diminished.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The night trading price of caustic soda SH2505 contract fell first and then rose; there was a slight dive after the opening of the morning trading, and then rebounded and rose, climbing to the intraday high and then fell slightly; the market maintained a range of fluctuations in the afternoon. As of today's afternoon closing, the SH2505 contract fluctuated between 2742 and 2812 throughout the day, with a price difference of 70, and the 05 contract increased its position by 8705 lots. As of now, the position is 1008836 lots.

Analysis of caustic soda index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index on December 30 was 3049.18, down 1.42 from the previous working day, a range of 0.047%, and the domestic caustic soda index fell.

Forecast of caustic soda market:
Spot: The caustic soda market continues to run with a differentiated trend, among which the price of liquid caustic soda market has declined locally, and the price of flake caustic soda market has risen steadily; in terms of the current situation of liquid caustic soda, the price of liquid caustic soda purchased by Shandong's main alumina plant has been lowered again, which is unfavorable to the local and surrounding market atmosphere. In addition, the enthusiasm of downstream to receive goods is not high, and the purchase of rigid demand into the market is maintained, and chlor-alkali enterprises are under pressure to lower their quotations; most other regions maintain relatively stable operation, and manufacturers are cautious in adjusting prices; it is expected that the price of liquid caustic soda market will be mainly in a narrow range in the short term, most regions will maintain stable operation, a few regions still have downward space, and some regions may have a small increase. The caustic soda flake market is stable with a slight increase. At the beginning of the week, the market prices in some areas were relatively stable, and there was a slight increase in some local areas. Manufacturers in the Northwest region have not yet released new prices; the pre-sale situation in some areas is acceptable, and some factories have a tight delivery situation, which has a certain positive boost to the market price. In addition, there is some rigid demand for replenishment before the holiday. It is expected that the market price of caustic soda flakes will be mainly in a narrow range in the short term, or there may be a small upward space. Pay attention to the price adjustment trend in the Northwest region and the market transaction situation.