Caustic soda: Spot market is stable with small fluctuations, and the market has reduced positions significantly(December 27, 2024)

Analysis of caustic soda futures: Opening price of SH2505 contract on December 27: 2783, highest price: 2787, lowest price: 2754, position: 100129, settlement price: 2771, yesterday's settlement price: 2772, drop: 1, closing price: 2761, daily trading volume: 108905 lots, deposited funds: 1.327 billion, capital outflow: 111 million.

Caustic soda market price:

Caustic soda spot analysis: Today, the caustic soda market is stable with small fluctuations, the liquid caustic soda market price in some regions is stable and declining, and the flake caustic soda market remains relatively stable. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, the price of 32% ion membrane caustic soda from some manufacturers fell by 10 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price in the market did not fluctuate, the market price of 99% flake caustic soda remained stable, and the price range of other concentrations of caustic soda did not change significantly. Specifically, in terms of low-concentration alkali, some manufacturers in Hebei Province have reduced their prices in a narrow range. Under the impact of Shandong's low-priced supply, coupled with the low enthusiasm of downstream enterprises in the region to accept goods, the market price has been stable with a slight decline; after the previous price reduction in Shandong and East China, the downstream acceptance sentiment has slightly improved, and the inventory pressure of some enterprises has been released; in terms of high-concentration alkali, the market has been stable, the market has been stable, and the market price has not fluctuated significantly. Downstream operators are cautious and wait-and-see to enter the market. Today, the market price of flake alkali is stable, and the market shipment situation is acceptable; some manufacturers in the northwest region are tight on picking up goods, and the logistics and transportation are slow, which has a certain positive support for the market price, but the market operators are cautious and wait-and-see as the weekend approaches, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has slightly weakened.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The night trading price of caustic soda SH2505 contract climbed to the intraday high and then fluctuated downward; the market showed a range of fluctuations in the morning; the market fluctuated downward in the afternoon, fell to the intraday low and then rebounded slightly. As of today's afternoon closing, the SH2505 contract fluctuated between 2754 and 2787 throughout the day, with a spread of 33. The 05 contract reduced its position by 7706 lots, and the current position is 100129 lots.

Caustic soda index analysis: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index was 3050.61 on December 27, and the domestic caustic soda index remained stable.

Forecast of caustic soda market:
Spot: At present, the liquid caustic soda market is stable with small fluctuations. Some regions are stable with a slight decline, and most regions are running steadily; most chlor-alkali enterprises maintain normal operation, the supply in the market is relatively sufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream operators in some regions to receive goods is not high. The market prices in some regions are mainly weak and consolidated; but considering that the prices in Shandong and East China markets continued to fall in the early stage, downstream operators in the region bought into the market at low prices, the goods in the market were stable, and it was close to the double holidays. There was an expectation of replenishment of inventory before the holidays. With the positive boost on the demand side, it is expected that the liquid caustic soda market will show a differentiated trend in the short term. Most regions will maintain stable operation, and a few regions still have downward space. Some regions may have a slight increase. The flake caustic soda market remains relatively stable, with good order support from some factories and tight supply. In addition, the low inventory of some factories supports a slight increase in market prices, and the market transaction price follows a slight upward movement; considering that it is close to the weekend, most manufacturers have little intention to adjust prices, and it is expected that the flake caustic soda market price will be stable in the short term, with limited fluctuations.