January 22 Macroeconomic Index:High-level interactions between China and the United States, China's nonferrous metal production growth, digitalization of the petrochemical industry, futures market adjustments and global economic and trade trends

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Domestic News

1. Han Zheng attends the inauguration ceremony of the President of the United States

2. In 2024, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in China exceeded 79 million tons

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: A symposium on the digitalization of petrochemical industry scenarios was held

4. DCE: Adjust the price limit and trading margin of relevant futures contracts during the Spring Festival holiday

5. Pan Jian, co-chairman of CATL: It is expected to announce a new European joint venture plant project this year

 International News

1. Canada's CPI is further lower, increasing the central bank's expectation of a rate cut next week

2. Economists: As the U.S. deficit grows, Trump faces a difficult situation

3. Trump's two major moves have put pressure on oil prices, but the oil market may rise in the future

4. Germany's economic predicament raises concerns that investor confidence fell more than expected

5. Scholz urged the EU to sign more free trade agreements

Domestic News

1. Han Zheng attends the inauguration ceremony of the President of the United States

On January 20, local time, President Xi Jinping's special representative and Vice President Han Zheng was invited to attend the inauguration ceremony of US President Trump in Washington. During his stay in the United States, Han Zheng met with Vice President-elect Vance, and met with representatives of the US business community, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc., and Thornton, Honorary Chairman of the Brookings Institution. During the meeting with Vance, Han Zheng said that China is willing to work with the US side to promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations. As long as the two sides adhere to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, they will certainly be able to achieve mutual success and benefit the two countries. During the meeting with representatives of the US business community, Han Zheng said that China will unswervingly promote reform and opening up and continue to improve and optimize the business environment. It is hoped that US companies will continue to invest in China, actively play the role of a bridge, and make greater contributions to the development of China-US relations. Meeting with Musk and Thornton, Han Zheng said that American companies and all walks of life are welcome to seize the opportunity and take active actions to share the fruits of China's development, promote exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States in a wide range of fields such as economy, trade, and people-to-people relations, enhance understanding and friendship between the two peoples, and continuously improve and consolidate the public opinion foundation of the relations between the two countries.

2. In 2024, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in China exceeded 79 million tons

On the 21st, it was learned from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association that in 2024, the industrial added value of China's non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size increased by 8.9% year-on-year, and the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 79.19 million tons, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year. Among them, the output of refined copper and electrolytic aluminum reached 13.64 million tons and 44 million tons respectively, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% and 4.6%. Chen Xuesen, Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said at the press conference on the economic operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2024 held on the same day that the production and operation of China's non-ferrous metals industry maintained steady growth in 2024, the output and investment of major products increased compared with the previous year, and the total profit increased significantly year-on-year.

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: A symposium on the digitalization of petrochemical industry scenarios was held

On January 20, 2025, the Information Technology Development Department held a symposium on the digitalization of petrochemical industry scenarios. The meeting introduced the overall work considerations of scenario-based mapping to promote the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, and reported in detail the construction of "one map and four lists" for the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry, as well as the progress and effectiveness of the pilot work. Representatives of the participating units exchanged views on the current situation of digitalization in the petrochemical industry, the needs and typical practices of digital transformation in scenarios, reached a preliminary consensus on the "one map and four lists" for the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry, and put forward opinions and suggestions on the implementation and application of the "one map and four lists". In the next step, the Information Technology Development Department will resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, thoroughly implement the Action Plan for Digital Transformation of Manufacturing Industry, fully implement the Implementation Guide for Digital Transformation of Manufacturing Enterprises, and accelerate the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry to develop in depth with "one map and four lists" as the main starting point.

4. DCE: Adjust the price limit and trading margin of relevant futures contracts during the Spring Festival holiday

Starting from the settlement on January 24, 2025 (Friday), the price limit of iron ore futures contracts will be adjusted to 12%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 14%; The price limit of coke futures contracts is adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level remains unchanged; The price limit of coking coal futures contracts is adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level is adjusted to 14%; The price limit of yellow soybean No. 1, corn, egg, linear low-density PE, PP, and PVC futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 9%; The price limit of yellow soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, ethylene glycol, and styrene futures contracts is adjusted to 9%, and the trading margin level is adjusted to 10%; The price limit of palm oil and liquefied petroleum gas futures contracts is adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level is adjusted to 11%; The price limit of corn starch futures contracts is adjusted to 7%, and the trading margin level is adjusted to 8%; The price limit of japonica rice futures contracts is adjusted to 6%, and the trading margin level is adjusted to 7%; The price limit of hog and log futures contracts is adjusted to 8%, and the trading margin level is adjusted to 10%; The price limit of fiberboard and plywood futures contracts is adjusted to 7%, and the trading margin level remained unchanged.

5. Pan Jian, co-chairman of CATL: It is expected to announce a new European joint venture plant project this year

Pan Jian, co-chairman of CATL, said at the Davos forum that CATL announced in December last year that it would establish a joint venture power battery plant with Stellantis in Spain, and CATL is also expected to announce new joint venture factory projects with other OEMs in Europe this year. Including the joint venture plant in Spain, CATL has now deployed three battery plants in Europe.

International News

1. Canada's CPI is further lower, increasing the central bank's expectation of a rate cut next week

The data showed that the Canadian CPI continued to rise at a slower pace in December, thanks to sales tax breaks that were implemented from mid-month, reducing the prices of alcohol, restaurant food and children's clothing. Statistics Canada said the annual rate fell to 1.8%, slightly lower than expected and down from 1.9% in the previous month; This was down 0.4% month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, the price of alcoholic beverages purchased from stores fell by 1.3% in December, and the price of food purchased from restaurants fell by 1.6%. The sales tax relief measure, which affects a tenth component of the CPI basket, will last until mid-February, while January will be a full month of tax exemption, unlike December, which was only 18 days. A further decline in inflation in December could prompt the central bank to cut interest rates again next week, although BOC Governor Macklem said last month that further rate cuts would be gradual.

2. Economists: As the U.S. deficit grows, Trump faces a difficult situation

Kenneth Rogov, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at the World Economic Forum that Donald Trump faces a less optimistic backdrop for his second presidential term due to rising interest rates and has less room to improve the economy. According to the economist, the current level of interest rates raises concerns about the compounding effect of the country's deficit. He added that this raises questions about the sustainability of US GDP growth, as economic growth is still far below the deficit (growth). The economist predicts that inflation will stabilize over the next five years, but in the long term it may happen again.

3. Trump's two major moves have put pressure on oil prices, but the oil market may rise in the future

On January 21, Trump announced a plan to increase U.S. oil and gas production and said he was considering a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico from February 1, rather than imposing it immediately, both of which are good for lower oil prices. However, in the future, the imposition of tariffs on Canadian crude oil could push the market price higher. Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said that almost all of Canada's oil exports go to the United States, usually at a discounted price for WTI. As a result, the threat of U.S. tariffs increases the risk that much of Canada's oil exports will cost more. In addition, Trump has pledged to replenish strategic reserves, a move that could be positive for oil prices by boosting demand for U.S. crude oil.

4. Germany's economic predicament raises concerns that investor confidence fell more than expected

German investors’ confidence fell more than expected in January as the German economy contracted for the second year in a row, German economic research firm ZEW said on Tuesday. Its economic sentiment index fell to 10.3 points from 15.7 points in December, compared to the market expectation of 15.3. Achim Wambach, President of ZEW, said: "Insufficient private household spending and sluggish demand from the construction sector continue to bring the German economy to a standstill. If these trends continue this year, Germany will fall further behind the rest of the eurozone. However, the assessment of the current state of the economy in Germany has changed only slightly, with the current state of the economy index rising from -93.1 to -90.4.

5. Scholz urged the EU to sign more free trade agreements

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the European Commission should reach a free trade agreement with countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia. Scholz said the European Commission's recent trade deals with Mexico and Mercosur (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) should not be final. "If the EU has more free trade agreements with other countries and regions, it will create wealth," he said.

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