January 10 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic Policy Dynamics and International Economic Outlook - Stable Growth, Green Transformation and Global Trade Trends

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to hear reports on the work of the Party groups of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the State Council, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate

2. Joint Ministry of Commerce: China has signed 23 free trade agreements with 30 countries and regions

3. The central bank is stabilizing the exchange rate, and the central bank will issue 60 billion offshore RMB central bills in Hong Kong

4. "Choosing the opportunity to cut the reserve requirement ratio and cutting interest rates", and the intensity of monetary policy regulation is expected to escalate

5. Shanghai: By 2026, the application scale of new energy storage will be more than 800,000 kilowatts, and by 2030, the application scale will exceed 2 million kilowatts

 International News

1. Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China: Financial institutions should strengthen the analysis and research of key green industries and take the initiative to connect with the list of key projects for the construction of a beautiful China

2. The United Nations report predicts that global economic growth will remain at 2.8% in 2025

3. Fed Governor Bowman: Deem the December rate cut the "last step" in policy readjustment

4. Inflation Baltic dry bulk freight index rose slightly, boosted by the rise in capesize vessels

5. Pantheon Macroeconomics: German industrial output in the fourth quarter may be better than expected

Domestic News

1. The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to hear reports on the work of the Party groups of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the State Council, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate

The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a full-day meeting on January 9 to listen to reports on the work of the leading party groups of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the State Council, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, as well as the work reports of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting and delivered an important speech. The meeting stressed that this year is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and an important year for further deepening reform in an all-round way. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the State Council, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate Party groups should be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the 2nd and 3rd Plenary Sessions of the 20th Central Committee, deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishments", strengthen the "four consciousnesses", strengthen the "four self-confidences", and achieve the "two safeguards", adhere to the highest political principle of centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, establish and practice a correct view of political achievements, persist in taking the lead in doing things, and work hard, overcome difficulties, ensure the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, and show new responsibilities and new achievements on the new journey of comprehensively promoting Chinese-style modernization.

2. Joint Ministry of Commerce: China has signed 23 free trade agreements with 30 countries and regions

He Yadong, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said that up to now, China has signed 23 free trade agreements with 30 countries and regions, with free trade partners on five continents, and the network of free trade zones has been expanding and deepening. The content and quality of free trade agreements are also constantly being enriched and improved, and new contents such as the negative list for trade in services and investment, as well as standard cooperation and digital economy, have become the "standard configuration" of China's newly signed free trade agreements. In the next step, we will continue to actively expand the network of high-standard free trade zones facing the world, and continue to implement the effective free trade agreements with high quality, so that they can better benefit the people of China and our free trade partners.

3. The central bank is stabilizing the exchange rate, and the central bank will issue 60 billion offshore RMB central bills in Hong Kong

The People's Bank of China reported on January 9 that the People's Bank of China will tender for the issuance of the first tranche of central bank bills in 2025 in Hong Kong on January 15. With a term of 6 months (182 days) and an issuance volume of RMB60 billion, an increase of RMB5 billion over the previous issue, and this issue will be the largest single offshore RMB central bill issued in recent years. According to the reporter's understanding, in the past, when the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation was greater, the People's Bank of China issued offshore RMB central bills many times to release a signal to stabilize the exchange rate. At this point in time, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has increased the issuance of offshore RMB central bills, which undoubtedly releases an important policy signal of resolutely maintaining exchange rate stability.

4. "Choosing the opportunity to cut the reserve requirement ratio and cutting interest rates", and the intensity of monetary policy regulation is expected to escalate

The Information Office of the State Council held a regular policy briefing, and Liu Dechun, Director of the Department of Resource Conservation and Environmental Protection of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the implementation of "reverse invoicing" by resource recycling enterprises to sellers of scrapped products by natural persons should be accelerated. Implement special actions to promote the application of recycled materials, implement the extended producer responsibility system, and support automobile, electrical and electronic products and other production enterprises to increase the proportion of recycled materials. Crack down on "workshop-style" recycling and dismantling, and investigate and deal with illegal recycling and dismantling of scrapped motor vehicles, retired power batteries, and waste electrical and electronic products in accordance with laws and regulations.

5. Shanghai: By 2026, the application scale of new energy storage will be more than 800,000 kilowatts, and by 2030, the application scale will exceed 2 million kilowatts

The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai New Energy Storage Demonstration Leading Innovation and Development Work Plan (2025-2030)", by 2026, establish a new energy storage core technology and equipment industry chain, build 2 new energy storage industrial parks, cultivate more than 10 high-quality enterprises with industrial driving effects, and strive to apply more than 800,000 kilowatts, energy storage peak shaving has achieved initial results, and drive the industrial scale to nearly 100 billion. By 2030, the introduction and cultivation will be combined to form a leading enterprise with a scale of 100 billion yuan, and strive to achieve an application scale of more than 2 million kilowatts, achieve a full reduction in peak loads, and drive the industrial scale to double again.

International News

1. Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China: Financial institutions should strengthen the analysis and research of key green industries and take the initiative to connect with the list of key projects for the construction of a beautiful China

Bank of England Deputy Governor Briden said on Thursday that recent evidence supported a gradual rate cut, but that measuring the appropriate pace of easing was tricky. Speaking in a speech at the University of Edinburgh, Briden said: "Recent evidence further supports the lifting of policy restrictions, and I expect them to continue to be phased out over time." "Briden is the Deputy Governor for financial stability and is seen as the centrist in the Monetary Policy Committee. She said it was "hard to know" how quickly interest rates should fall at this stage. "To be clear, I expect bank rates to fall over time as the impact of past large shocks continues to wane," Briden said. ”

2. The United Nations report predicts that global economic growth will remain at 2.8% in 2025

On January 9, local time, the United Nations released the "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025" (WESP) report. The report forecasts that global economic growth will remain at 2.8% in 2025, the same as in 2024. While the global economy has shown resilience and withstood a series of overlapping shocks, growth remains below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%, constrained by weak investment, weak productivity growth, and high debt levels. Falling inflation and continued monetary easing in many economies could provide a modest boost to global economic activity in 2025, the report noted. However, uncertainties remain looming, including geopolitical conflicts, rising trade tensions, and high borrowing costs in many regions, challenges that are particularly acute for low-income and fragile countries, whose growth performance is sluggish and fragile, threatening progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

3. Fed Governor Bowman: Deem the December rate cut the "last step" in policy readjustment

Fed Governor Bowman said on Thursday that she supported last month's rate cut, believing it was the "last step" in the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, and that caution must be exercised going forward due to rising inflation risks. "We should also refrain from prejudging the future policies of the new administration," Bowman said in a speech prepared to address the California Bankers Association. "Instead, we should wait for clearer news and then seek to understand the impact on economic activity, the labor market and inflation." It was the first time Bowman had made such remarks since he became the favorite to become the Fed's next top banking regulator. Barr announced this week that he would step down as vice chair for supervision at the Federal Reserve by the end of next month. "This year will see a transition in the leadership of banking institutions, which I expect will translate into a shift in priorities and approach," Bowman said. She reiterated her long-standing call for more targeted regulation and a more "pragmatic" approach to policy-making.

4. Inflation Baltic dry bulk freight index rose slightly, boosted by the rise in capesize vessels

The Baltic Dry Bulk Index edged higher on Thursday, with higher capesize rates offsetting declines for other vessel types. The Baltic Dry Index rose 3 points, or 0.31%, to 969. The capesize freight index rose 64 points to 1,164. The average daily profit of capesize vessels rose $530 to $9,653. The Panamax freight index fell 45 points to 992. The average daily profit of Panamax ships fell by $400 to $8,931. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index slipped 16 points to 830 points, the lowest since August 2023. The handysize freight index slipped 9 points to 515.

5. Pantheon Macroeconomics: German industrial output in the fourth quarter may be better than expected

Claus Vistesen, a macro analyst at Panson, noted in the report that Germany's industrial output grew steadily in November, and output in the fourth quarter looked much better than a few months ago. Energy production rebounded from a sharp decline at the start of the fourth quarter, jumping 5.6%, which helped with the result, but core manufacturing also performed strongly. However, survey data remains generally poor, so output is expected to decline in December. But the outlook for German growth in the last quarter of 2024 has suddenly changed a bit better due to the prospect of a rise in retail sales in Q4 and other data showing a sharp rebound in the trade surplus in November.

Domestic Macro Economy Index