February 10 Macroeconomic Index:From China’s CPI growth to global crude oil market forecast

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: Affected by the Spring Festival, the national CPI increase expanded in January

2. Coal-to-naphtha: In 2024, the hydrogen production of the main producing areas was about 686,000 tons

3. The first phase of the world's largest metamorphic rock oilfield project was put into production

4. Thoroughly implement the strategic plan to promote the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era, and show greater achievements in Chinese-style modernization

5. It is necessary to speed up the standard layout of emerging industries such as low-altitude transportation road-air coordination and artificial intelligence

 International News

1. German industrial production is still lagging behind pre-pandemic levels

2. Slovakia has begun importing Russian gas through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline

3. Iran's first drone carrier was unveiled

4. Yemen Houthis Movement: Palestinians hold on to their land, and The United States and Israel will eventually fail

5. Citigroup: The supply growth by non-OPEC+ exceeds demand, and Brent Crude may be under pressure in the second half of the year

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: Affected by the Spring Festival, the national CPI increase expanded in January

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in January, affected by the Spring Festival, the national CPI growth expanded, from stable operation last month to an increase of 0.7%, and the year-on-year increase expanded from 0.1% last month to 0.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rebounded for the fourth consecutive month, rising 0.5% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year, both of which were larger than the previous month. From a month-on-month perspective, rising service and food prices were the main factors affecting the CPI to rising month-on-month. From a year-on-year perspective, the prices of services and food increased significantly due to the impact of the Spring Festival, coupled with the rebound in gasoline prices, which jointly affected the year-on-year increase in CPI.

2. Coal-to-naphtha: In 2024, the hydrogen production of the main producing areas was about 686,000 tons

As of 2024, China's total coal tar hydrogenation capacity reached 12.155 million tons/year, showing a "two-side and multi-point" distribution trend. Among them, the "two sides" were Shaanxi Province and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, which had a production capacity of 3.41 million tons/year and 3.28 million tons/year respectively, totaling 6.69 million tons/year, accounting for more than half of the country's total production capacity. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of the end of December 2024, Shaanxi Province has produced a total of 21.2 tons of hydrogenated naphtha, and Xinjiang Autonomous Region has produced a total of 474,000 tons of naphtha. Shaanxi has another straight-run naphtha output of about 238,000 tons.

3. The first phase of the world's largest metamorphic rock oilfield project was put into production

The reporter learned from CNOOC Tianjin Branch that the first phase of the development project of Bozhong 26-6 oilfield, a 100-million-ton oilfield, was officially put into operation on the 7th, marking the official entry of the world's largest metamorphic rock oilfield into the production stage. The Bozhong 26-6 oilfield development project is divided into phase I and phase II. The main production facilities of the first phase of the project include 1 central processing platform and 1 unmanned wellhead platform, and 33 development wells are planned to be put into operation, with an estimated peak daily oil and gas equivalent production of more than 3,500 cubic meters. (Xinhua News Agency)

4. Thoroughly implement the strategic plan to promote the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era, and show greater achievements in Chinese-style modernization

President Xi Jinping: Thoroughly implement the strategic plan to promote the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era, and show greater achievements in Chinese-style modernization; It is necessary to aim at the blockages and bottlenecks that restrict the construction of a new development pattern and promote high-quality development, as well as the difficult and painful problems in the field of people's livelihood, set up reform topics, generate reform plans, and strive to solve deep-seated contradictions and break down institutional and institutional obstacles.

5. It is necessary to speed up the standard layout of emerging industries such as low-altitude transportation road-air coordination and artificial intelligence

Reviewed and approved the "Action Plan for the Improvement of Transportation Standards (2024-2027)" Task Division Plan, etc. Accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and further deepen reform in an all-round way; It is necessary to speed up the standard layout of emerging industries such as low-altitude transportation road-air coordination and artificial intelligence.

International News

1. German industrial production is still lagging behind pre-pandemic levels

Carsten Brzeski, an analyst at ING, said that Germany's industrial activity fell by 2.4% in December, continuing the weakening trend of the country's overall economy through 2024. With Germany's economy contracting for the second year in a row, industrial production was still around 10% below pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing capacity utilization was at a low point that was only seen during the financial crisis and early lockdowns of the pandemic. Even after the strong growth in December last year, the number of orders was not enough to kick start a much-needed shift in inventory cycles. Coupled with the upcoming tariffs, the outlook for German industry is not at all rosy.

2. Slovakia has begun importing Russian gas through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline

On February 6, local time, Ferenc, head of SPP, Slovakia's largest natural gas supplier, said in an interview with local media that the company has been importing Russian natural gas through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline since February 1, and the delivery volume is expected to double from April this year. Ferenc said the agreement between SPP and Gazprom is valid until 2034 and "no consideration is given to terminating the agreement." The import of Russian gas through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline is intended to reduce energy costs. "Turkish Stream" is a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe through Turkey, and is currently one of the few remaining gas pipelines between Russia and Europe. The pipeline is designed to transport natural gas to Turkey, or via Turkey to the south or southeast of Europe.

3. Iran's first drone carrier was unveiled

On February 6, local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unveiled the country's first drone carrier. According to reports, the ship's name is "Shahid Bagheri", the take-off and landing runway is 180 meters long, and can carry several UAV formations with different functions, take-off and landing UAVs, and is equipped with various light high-speed combat ships and helicopters. The ship joins the naval fleet of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. It is seen as a mobile naval platform for Iranian drone and helicopter missions in the ocean, can be used for ocean voyages, has a combat radius of 22,000 nautical miles, and can be stationed at sea for a year without refueling.

4. Yemen Houthis Movement: Palestinians hold on to their land, and The United States and Israel will eventually fail

On February 6, local time, Yemen's Houthi rebels issued a statement condemning the U.S. government's plan to expel Palestinians and take control of the Gaza Strip. The statement said that the forcible expulsion of the Palestinian people is a flagrant violation of international law and undermines regional and global security and stability. The statement stressed that the United States and Israel will ultimately fail because the Palestinians are steadfast in their hold on to their land.

5. Citigroup: The supply growth by non-OPEC+ exceeds demand, and Brent Crude may be under pressure in the second half of the year

Francesco Martoccia, a strategist at Citigroup Energy, said in a research note that it is increasingly likely that Brent crude oil prices will remain at $60-65 per barrel through the second half of the year. From the second quarter to the fourth quarter, the growth of oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries will still outpace the weak global demand growth, and the oil market will turn into a surplus. Martoccia remains strongly convinced that Trump could end up having a bearish impact on the oil market. He pointed out that Trump has been emphasizing that lowering energy prices is the core solution to problems such as inflation in the United States.

Domestic Macro Economy Index